Clemson (8) vs Iowa (9)

Not a massive gap, but there’s still a little daylight here and it leans Iowa. The Hawkeyes are simply the better offense by a real margin — 56.6% eFG (16th) and 121.7 adjusted offensive efficiency versus Clemson’s 52.6% (118th) and 116.5 — and they take care of the ball with a 1.58 assist-to-turnover ratio (31st). Clemson’s offense is basically “hope the threes fall,” except they only hit 34.1% from deep (169th), which is not exactly terrifying.

Meanwhile Iowa’s defense quietly travels better than people think: 30th in KenPom defensive efficiency and forcing turnovers on 20.6% of possessions (11th), which is a problem for a Clemson offense that’s already just 89th in A/T ratio. Vegas seems to be giving Clemson credit for the shinier defensive profile, but when one team is top-20 in shooting efficiency and the other is middling, the math usually wins. The Metis number pushing past -4 is just pricing that reality instead of pretending Clemson’s offense is something it isn’t.