Miami (7) vs Missouri (10)

Alright, let’s break this down. Vegas is sleeping on Miami here—Metis has them as 5.5-point favorites for a reason. First off, Missouri's offensive efficiency (119.5) ranks 50th—fine, but Miami’s at 121.4 (33rd), and the Canes are better at limiting turnovers (top 100 in TO rate vs. Missouri’s pedestrian 204th). Miami also has the rebounding advantage: 76% on defensive boards (22nd) vs. Missouri’s 71.3% (194th), which is going to be a problem.

Missouri’s got some nice individual stats like effective FG% (55.4%, 32nd), but they can’t handle Miami's defense, which ranks 38th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tigers are shooting a mediocre 35% from deep (118th), and with Miami’s better perimeter defense and ability to turn defense into offense, this game is more lopsided than Vegas realizes. The line should be closer to 5 or 6, not 1.5—Metis is spot on here.