NC St (11) vs Texas (11)

There’s not much daylight here, but the extra point toward NC State is justified when you actually look under the hood. Both sims land around -2.8, and NC State’s profile is just cleaner: a top-20 offense (124.1) with elite ball security (1.689 A/TO, 15th) and a top-10 three-point clip (38.8%) against a Texas defense that lets teams shoot 36% from deep (299th). Vegas is giving Texas credit for the name and that free throw rate (4th), but you still have to make shots in between whistles.

Texas’s offensive efficiency (125, 13th) looks shiny until you notice the 1.125 A/TO ratio (219th) against a competent NC State defense that at least forces some mistakes (17.9% TO rate). If the whistles don’t tilt heavily their way, Texas is stuck grinding halfcourt possessions without spacing (34.9% from three, 126th), which is not how you cover even a short number. Metis shading this to -2.5 is just calling out that NC State has the more reliable ways to score.