Michigan St (3) vs North Dakota St (14)

Not much daylight here, but I’m rolling with the Metis line at Michigan State -15. The Spartans are clearly better, but North Dakota State isn’t the pushover Vegas thinks they are. Despite their 14-seed label, the Bison are solid defensively, ranking 17th in defensive rebounding, and Michigan State’s biggest strength is their offensive rebounding — they could get frustrated here. North Dakota State isn’t awful at shooting, with a 35.7% 3-point clip, and they’ll grind down the clock to keep it closer than expected. Michigan State’s defense is strong, but when you're giving 16.5 points, you’re asking a lot for a team with a tempo as slow as Michigan State’s. This won’t be a blowout, just a controlled win.