Illinois (3) vs Penn (14)

Vegas is pricing Illinois like they’re in a track meet blowout, but this is a slow grind. The Illini play at a 277th-ranked tempo, which naturally caps possessions, and Penn isn’t completely helpless defensively with a 105.9 adj D (111th) and solid 31.7% opponent 3PT defense (57th). When your favorite is laying 24.5 but prefers to walk the ball up, you’re asking for surgical efficiency every trip, not just superiority.

Metis at -18.5 lines up cleanly with the sims (17.5 and 18.7), and Penn’s elite 38.7% shooting from three (11th) gives them just enough variance to hang inside a big number. Illinois will crush the glass (38.4% ORB, 3rd) and win comfortably, but Vegas is overvaluing margin in a low-possession game. This smells like a 15–20 point win, not a 25-point demolition.