Prairie View (16) vs Lehigh (16)

Not much daylight here, but the edge still leans Metis. The sims land at 4.0–4.2 and Lehigh’s shooting profile is just meaningfully cleaner — 53.3% eFG (91st) vs Prairie View’s brutal 47.9% (315th), plus a top-40 three-point clip at 36.5% against a defense allowing 35% from deep (249th).

Prairie View’s entire offensive ecosystem is a mess — 0.956 assist/turnover ratio (305th) and 24.4% offensive rebounding (306th) means a lot of empty trips, and they don’t even shoot enough threes (341st in rate) to compensate. Vegas shading this toward a toss-up ignores how little Prairie View actually does well outside free throws, so getting to -4 is just pricing in that their floor shows up again.