Purdue (2) vs Queens (15)

Vegas is hanging a number that assumes Purdue will play a full 40-minute demolition, but their tempo (64.4, 324th) says otherwise — they’re not built to win by 30 unless the opponent completely implodes. Metis at -22 lines up with the sims (20.6–20.8), and it’s hard to ignore that Queens can actually score: 56.6% eFG (15th) and 115.8 adj. offense (77th) is not your typical 15-seed corpse. Purdue’s defense is good, not elite (100.4, 36th), so this isn’t some suffocation spot.

Queens is bad defensively (117.2, 322nd), sure, but Purdue’s methodical style plus a 35.0% offensive rebounding rate doesn’t automatically translate to margin, just control. You’re laying 25.5 with a team that prefers surgical efficiency over chaos, against a team that shoots 46.8% of its shots from three and can backdoor this thing late. Metis is basically saying Purdue dominates but doesn’t bother to bury them, which feels a lot more realistic than Vegas asking for a 30-piece.