Georgia (8) vs Saint Louis (9)

Vegas is pricing Georgia like a top-20 offense without acknowledging Saint Louis has the **#2 opponent eFG% (44.8%)** and holds teams to **30% from three (8th)**—that’s a bad matchup for a Bulldogs team shooting just **34.1% from deep (170th)**. Meanwhile, Saint Louis is basically running a flamethrower offense: **59.7% eFG (3rd)** and **40.5% from three (2nd)** against a Georgia defense sitting at **111th in eFG% allowed** and a brutal **323rd in defensive rebounding**, which is how you turn “good offense” into empty possessions real quick.

This isn’t a coin flip—it’s a stylistic ambush. Both sims land on Saint Louis by multiple possessions (-2.2 and -5.3), and Metis splitting the difference at -4.5 looks like the honest number while Vegas is shading SEC bias and hoping you don’t notice Georgia’s defense is mid at best.