Kentucky (7) vs Santa Clara (10)

Vegas is underestimating Kentucky here. Metis has them at -4.5 for a reason: Santa Clara’s defense is laughably porous on the boards, ranking 283rd in defensive rebounding, and they barely create turnovers (21st in opponent TO%). Kentucky’s size and athleticism should consistently exploit those weaknesses, especially with their 27th-ranked defensive efficiency forcing sloppy possessions.

Not much daylight in other areas—the teams are similar in assist-to-turnover ratios and tempo—but Santa Clara’s three-point shooting is hot-and-miss (34.9%, 130th), meaning they aren’t likely to keep pace from deep. Vegas is giving a half-point too much love to Santa Clara; the numbers favor the Wildcats covering comfortably.