Louisville (6) vs South Florida (11)

Look, Vegas is giving Louisville just a 5.5-point edge, but this line should be closer to 8.5, and here’s why: South Florida is a mediocre team with glaring weaknesses. Their offensive efficiency sits outside the top 60, and while they can hit some threes, their 3-point defense is weak and their rebounding is brutal. Louisville, on the other hand, ranks 20th in effective field goal percentage and 19th in offensive efficiency. With South Florida’s lackluster defense and the Cardinals’ firepower, this game is unlikely to be close for long.

Furthermore, Louisville's superior rebounding (especially on the defensive end) and 3-point shooting should suffocate South Florida. The Bulls struggle on the glass and defending the perimeter — two areas where Louisville excels. So unless South Florida has an unreal shooting night, this one could be a double-digit win for the Cardinals. Trust the numbers; Metis is spot on here.