Texas Tech (5) vs Akron (12)

Vegas is playing it a little soft here with Texas Tech -7.5. The Red Raiders’ defense is elite relative to Akron’s offense: Akron ranks 113th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and their offensive rebound rate is mediocre at 32.7%, which means Tech’s disciplined defense will limit second-chance points. Akron’s elite 3-point shooting (38.5%, 14th in the country) is counterbalanced by their tiny free throw rate (0.291, 330th), so they just aren’t generating enough easy points to keep pace.

Metis at -8.5 feels right. Our simulations land squarely in the 8–9 point range, and Texas Tech’s offensive efficiency (125, 12th) combined with Akron’s porous defensive rebounding (72.5%, 148th) creates more scoring opportunities than Vegas accounts for. This isn’t nitpicking—Vegas is underestimating Tech’s ability to grind out points in the half court while Akron struggles to generate free throws or control the boards. Metis sees the margin more accurately.