Ohio St (8) vs TCU (9)

Vegas hanging **-2.5** here feels like they’re still pretending TCU’s defense can drag that offense across the finish line. It can’t. TCU shoots 50.9% eFG (201st), 33.1% from three (224th), and 70.8% at the line (243rd), which is a brutal combo against an Ohio State offense putting up a 56.5% eFG (18th) and 124.3 adj efficiency (17th). The sims landing at 5.7 and 7.1 aren’t flukes, they’re just math catching up to a team that struggles to score in multiple ways.

The real gap is shot quality and conversion — Ohio State actually makes shots while TCU mostly negotiates with the rim. Yes, TCU’s defense is solid (97.8 adj, 22nd), but it’s not elite enough to offset that offensive gap, especially when Ohio State shoots 36% from three and 77.5% from the line. Metis at -7 is basically saying “one team can score, the other hopes for chaos,” and over 40 minutes, competence usually wins that argument.