Iowa St (2) vs Tennesse St (15)

Alright, let's keep this simple. Vegas has Iowa State favored by 24.5, but Metis is dialing it back to 21.25. That’s a bit of a red flag — Vegas is overestimating the gap here. Iowa State is a top-10 team for a reason, but Tennessee State isn’t quite as disastrous as that spread suggests. The Tigers rank a respectable 172 in NET and are decent at slowing down tempo (36th in adjusted pace), which will help them hang around longer than Iowa State would prefer.

Look, Iowa State’s offense is great, but their free throw shooting is garbage (340th in FT%), and Tennessee State, while not elite, isn’t going to fold easily. Tennessee State has a solid enough defense to frustrate the Cyclones’ high-octane offense, and with their tempo control, they won’t just be steamrolled. Sure, Iowa State likely wins, but a 24-point blowout? Not happening — Metis has the right line here.