St. Mary's (7) vs Texas A&M (10)

Vegas is shading this like Texas A&M’s offense travels, but that 119.7 adj. efficiency (49th) runs into a St. Mary’s defense sitting 19th with a 46.7% opp eFG (18th), and that’s a bad lifestyle choice. The real mismatch is on the glass: A&M is a brutal 300th in defensive rebounding, while St. Mary’s is 11th in offensive rebounding and 3rd defensively, which is basically a possession tax every trip.

On the other end, St. Mary’s pairs elite shooting (38.6% from three, 13th) with the nation’s best free throw shooting (81.1%), while A&M’s defense is just 143rd in eFG allowed and doesn’t force turnovers (88th). The simulations sitting around 5–6 points aren’t guessing; they’re pricing in a cleaner, more efficient team that controls pace (297th tempo) and wins the margins. This should look like a slow squeeze, not a coin flip.