Nebraska (4) vs Troy (13)

Vegas has Nebraska at -13.5, but Metis is dead on at -14, and the numbers back it. Nebraska’s defense is elite — 92.4 adj DE ranked 7th — while Troy’s offense is toothless (110.7 adj OE, 141st) and incapable of hitting outside consistently (33.2% 3PT, 219th). The Cornhuskers’ elite assist-to-turnover ratio (1.843, 6th) will suffocate Troy’s sloppy ball-handling (1.277, 125th), so a margin north of 13 makes sense.

Don’t get cute with “Troy might hang around” narratives — their pace is glacial (64.9, 309th), and Nebraska can dictate tempo just fine (66.7, 218th). Vegas is undervaluing Nebraska’s efficiency gap on both ends; Metis’ -14 captures the defense-offense mismatch cleanly. Not much daylight here, but this is essentially a pass: the stats line up perfectly with the slightly higher Metis edge.