UMBC (16) vs Howard (16)

Vegas is giving UMBC just a 1.5-point nod, but the Metis models are more confident at -3, and the numbers back it. UMBC’s defensive rebounding is elite (76.5%, 15th nationally), and Howard is prone to letting teams clean up the glass (71.1%, 201st). UMBC’s slightly better shooting efficiency—53.9% eFG vs. 50.6% for Howard—combined with solid free throw shooting (76.4%) tilts the endgame math in their favor.

Vegas is overvaluing Howard’s offensive rebounding (33.4%, top 50) as a way to keep them close, but UMBC’s ability to control boards and limit second-chance points neutralizes that edge. Metis sees a 2-3 point cushion because Howard’s turnover pressure (20.6%) is mostly academic here; UMBC has a strong A/T ratio (1.265) and doesn’t panic, so that “advantage” is overstated. This is a clean, small-school grind where UMBC quietly does just enough to cover the three.