North Carolina (6) vs VCU (11)

Not a massive gap, but there’s still a couple points of daylight here and the underlying numbers lean toward North Carolina. UNC is simply the cleaner offensive team — a **121.4 KenPom offensive efficiency (32nd)** with a **1.65 assist-to-turnover ratio (18th)** versus VCU’s sloppier **1.34 (97th)**. When both teams shoot similar effective field goal rates (UNC 54.6%, VCU 54.2%), the side that actually converts possessions tends to pull away.

VCU’s profile also has a little smoke-and-mirrors vibe. Their defense ranks just **60th in KenPom** and they’re mediocre on the glass (**112th defensive rebounding**), which is a bad recipe against a UNC team that already grades better overall (**37th defensive efficiency, 27th T-Rank**). Vegas shading this at -2.5 feels like brand skepticism toward UNC; the metrics say the Tar Heels are the clearly better team and a two-possession margin is the fair number.