St. John's (5) vs UNI (12)

The Metis prediction of St. John's -9.5 is spot on, and here's why: Vegas is way too in love with the Red Storm’s pedigree. Sure, St. John's is ranked 15th on both NET and T-rank, but their effective field goal percentage (51%, ranked 194th) and 3-point shooting (33.2%, ranked 215th) scream “not elite offense.” UNI is no slouch defensively, ranking 23rd in opponent eFG%, 3rd in opponent 3PT%, and even holding opponents to a low turnover rate. They might not be perfect offensively, but their defensive metrics and ability to force bad shots keep them in games against superior teams.

Now, let’s talk about the gap in rebounding. St. John’s has a solid defensive rebounding percentage (73.2%, ranked 112th), but UNI edges them out at 75.5%, ranking 31st. UNI’s under-the-radar rebounding prowess and defensive efficiency are underappreciated in this line. Vegas is underestimating how much St. John’s will struggle to put together consistent offense and how UNI will scrap to make this closer than expected.