Kansas (4) vs California Baptist (13)

There’s a couple points of daylight here, and it matters. Kansas being -14.5 assumes a comfortable offensive margin, but this isn’t that version of Kansas — they’re 57th in adjusted offense and only 172nd in eFG% at 51.6, not exactly a buzzsaw. Meanwhile, California Baptist defends like a team that knows it can’t score, top-15 in opponent eFG% (46.4) and top-10 in opponent 3PT% (29.7), which is exactly how you drag a favorite into the mud.

CBU’s offense is ugly (0.836 assist-to-turnover ratio is borderline criminal), but they rebound 36% of their misses (12th nationally), which gives them second chances to hang around. Kansas doesn’t force turnovers (337th), so they’re not built to exploit that sloppiness enough to blow this open. Metis sitting at -12.5 aligns with both sims (11.9, 12.8), and Vegas is pricing in a level of offensive separation Kansas hasn’t consistently shown.