Alabama (4) vs Hofstra (13)

Not a ton of daylight here, but the edge still leans Metis. Alabama’s offense is a top-3 unit (129 adj OE) with elite ball security (1.65 A/TO), and Hofstra’s defense, while shiny on paper (45.9% eFG allowed), comes against a much softer schedule and generates almost no pressure (292nd in forced turnovers). That’s a bad combo against a team that bombs threes at the highest rate in the country (53.7%).

Hofstra’s path is slowing it down (317th in tempo), but Alabama plays at warp speed (4th) and has the shooting volume to stretch that 11.5 into something a bit more uncomfortable. When your offense is ranked 89th and relies heavily on shot-making (36.8% from three) without creating extra possessions, you’re not built to trade punches here. Metis asking for one more bucket than Vegas feels like the right side of thin value.