Arizona (1) vs LIU (16)

Not much daylight here, and honestly that’s the right answer. Metis and Vegas both land at -30.5 because the math is pretty clean: Arizona’s +37.7 net efficiency gap (127.7 offense vs 90 defense) against an LIU team sitting at 105.6/109.6 screams low-30s margin without needing to get cute.

If anything, the only reason this isn’t creeping higher is Arizona’s glacial 3PT rate (362nd) limiting true blowout variance, but LIU’s 238th-ranked defensive rebounding running into Arizona’s 4th-ranked offensive glass is a possession avalanche waiting to happen. You’re basically betting whether Arizona wins every margin battle by enough, not whether LIU belongs here, because they don’t.