Michigan (1) vs Howard (16)

Vegas is pushing Michigan at -31.5 like they’re expecting a full-on rout, but the data says otherwise. Howard’s offense is abysmal—KenPom 283—but they crash the offensive glass hard (33.4%, top 50), and their free throw rate is elite (0.442, 11th). Michigan’s elite defense is unlikely to let that matter much, but the simulations—OpenAI 25.3, Gemini 29.5—show Michigan covering closer to -28.5. Not much daylight, but Vegas is overstating the margin by a few points.

Howard will turn it over a lot, but Michigan struggles to force turnovers (15.1%, 255th), which keeps the pace manageable for the underdog. Their 3-point defense is sharp (30.2%, 11th), but Howard hits a decent percentage (34.7%, 138th), so the margin is naturally compressed. Metis’ -28.5 captures the grind here; Vegas is just salivating over the seed difference and ignoring the nuanced rebounding and free-throw edges that Howard can sneak into the box score.