BYU (6) vs Texas (11)

Vegas is underselling BYU here. Look at the numbers: both teams have basically identical offensive efficiency—Texas at 125 and BYU at 125.5—but BYU’s defense is measurably better (102.2 vs. 105.9), and they push the pace slightly more (69.9 vs. 66.9). Texas’s assist-to-turnover ratio is a disaster at 1.125, which screams sloppy possessions against a BYU team that forces a bit more pressure than Vegas is giving credit for.

Texas also lives and dies by offensive rebounding and free throws, but BYU’s defensive rebounding (73.8% vs. 76.1%) and solid floor defense mean Texas isn’t getting second-chance opportunities at a high rate. The simulations confirm it: Metis is comfortably in the 4–5 point range, and Vegas’s -2.5 is ignoring the subtle but persistent edges BYU holds in efficiency, discipline, and pace. This isn’t a nitpick—it’s a disciplined 6-seed controlling an 11-seed’s mistakes.