Tennessee (6) vs Miami OH (11)

Vegas has Tennessee as 10.5-point favorites here, but I’m not seeing why that’s the number. Miami OH has some solid offensive numbers, especially their efficient shooting (37.5% from three) and decent turnover control, but their defense is a sieve. With an adjusted defensive efficiency of 108.5 (156th), they’re simply too weak to handle Tennessee’s stifling defense and dominant rebounding (1st in offensive boards). The Vols are an elite defensive unit, and Miami OH’s lack of size and defensive awareness will be their undoing.

The Metis prediction of Tennessee -11.5 makes a lot more sense given the gap in efficiency and rebounding. Tennessee has a massive edge in both areas, plus they don't let opponents get easy looks — they’re top-25 in opponent three-point defense. Miami OH's offense may put up a fight, but without stopping Tennessee's size and defense, they’ll struggle to stay close. Ten points? Not enough. Eleven? That's more like it.