Florida (1) vs Prairie View (16)

Vegas is overrating Florida’s margin here. Prairie View is a complete disaster offensively—101.2 adjusted efficiency, 47.9 eFG%, and a 0.956 A/T ratio—but Florida isn’t exactly a juggernaut in shooting either, sitting at 53.5 eFG% and 71% FT. That gap doesn’t support a 35-point blowout; Metis at -30.5 is already generous given Prairie View’s defense is marginally better than the bottom of the barrel.

Vegas is also underestimating how Florida’s 43.2% offensive rebounding and 77.5% defensive rebounding translate to a slower, plodding game. Prairie View can’t score efficiently, but they can at least extend possessions with their pace (70.9 adj tempo), meaning Florida probably won’t rack up enough points to hit the extra five Vegas expects. This is a classic case of public perception inflating a number; the stats say -30 is the real line.