Michigan (1) vs Saint Louis (9)

The Vegas line has Michigan -12.5, but Metis is calling this one closer at Michigan -10.5. Saint Louis isn't a pushover, and with an effective FG% of 59.7% (3rd in the country), they're going to put pressure on Michigan’s defense. Michigan's defense is elite (KenPom 1st), but they haven't faced many offenses that can shoot this well, especially from three (Saint Louis is 2nd in 3pt%). On top of that, Saint Louis's ability to limit turnovers (1.444 A:TO ratio) could frustrate Michigan’s aggressive defense, slowing the game down and keeping it tighter than Vegas expects.

Michigan has some serious advantages, particularly on the boards and in transition, but don't overlook Saint Louis's ability to stretch the floor. The Billikens rank 2nd in effective FG% and 8th in opp. 3pt%, and their ability to spread the floor means Michigan can’t just rely on size alone. This isn't a blowout in the making, not with the Billikens staying efficient and slowing the game down. Vegas is overrating Michigan’s edge here.