Michigan St (3) vs Louisville (6)

Vegas and Metis are on the same page at Michigan St -4.5, and the numbers fully justify it. Louisville can shoot threes (52.8% of their shots), but they’re mediocre from deep (35.7%) and awful at getting to the line (0.335 FT rate, 227th). Michigan St’s elite defensive rebounding (79.7%, #1) and solid efficiency (94.7 adj DE, #13) will limit second-chance points, neutralizing Louisville’s offensive quirks.

Not much daylight here—Metis and Vegas converge because Michigan St’s strength on the boards and decent defensive efficiency outweigh Louisville’s firepower. Even the simulations support it: OpenAI at 3.2 and Gemini at 4.5 both hover right around the line, signaling this is essentially a pass for bettors who respect data over narrative.