Duke (1) vs TCU (9)

Vegas is underselling Duke here. Sure, a spread of -11.5 might seem reasonable for a team with a lower tempo, but Duke’s dominance on both sides of the ball cannot be overstated. TCU ranks 201st in effective FG%, and Duke’s defense ranks 2nd nationally. Combine that with the Blue Devils’ elite rebounding (10th in offensive rebounding percentage) and TCU’s lackluster performance in that area (68th), and Duke has a massive edge in second-chance points.

Moreover, Duke’s offensive efficiency (4th in KenPom) will carve up TCU’s defense, which ranks a middling 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. The gap is real—Metis’ 13.5 line reflects a more accurate picture of the mismatch between these teams. Don’t be fooled by TCU’s slightly better metrics—they won’t keep up for long.