Uconn (2) vs Furman (15)

Not much daylight here, but I’m siding with Metis shading this down to -18.5 because this matchup screams pace drag and limited possessions. Both teams crawl (UConn 322nd, Furman 263rd in tempo), and Furman’s 46.3% three-point rate means they’re going to milk clock and live with variance, even if they only hit 33.3% from deep. That’s not how you get blown out by 25 unless things go completely sideways.

UConn is elite defensively (45.7% opp eFG, 11th in KenPom D), but they’re not exactly a turnover machine (98th), so Furman should at least get shots up and avoid total avalanche runs. Meanwhile, Furman’s offense is mediocre (107.5 adj O, 200th), but their shooting efficiency (54.8% eFG, 46th) is just good enough to hang inside a big number. Vegas is pricing in a demolition, but the math says this is more controlled suffocation than outright massacre.