Illinois (3) vs VCU (11)

Vegas is giving Illinois just a 10.5-point edge, but the Metis projection of 11.5 is smarter money. Illinois is elite offensively—second in KenPom efficiency and top 10 in NET—and VCU is a mess trying to stop anyone (16.8% opponent turnover rate, 112th in defensive rebounding). The Rams can hit threes (36.7%), but they’re relying on volume over efficiency, and Illinois cleans the glass and moves the ball too well for that to matter.

Vegas is underestimating Illinois’ ability to impose tempo and exploit VCU’s defensive flaws. Metis’ number leans on Illinois’ offensive rebounding (38.4%, 3rd) and VCU’s paltry assist-to-turnover ratio (97th), which screams extra possessions for the Illini. The gap isn’t enormous, but the stats say Illinois should cover comfortably, making 11.5 the cleaner play.