Nebraska (4) vs Vanderbilt (5)

Vegas has Vanderbilt -2.5? Please. Metis is right here with the -3.5 line, and it's not close. Nebraska’s offense is solid, but they’re essentially a one-dimensional team: they shoot threes (50.7% of their shots) and hit them at a decent 35.3%. But that doesn’t help when Vanderbilt is top-10 in the country in both defensive efficiency and three-point defense (29.9%). Nebraska’s offensive rebounding is a disaster at 282nd nationally, and that’s going to cost them when they can’t extend possessions against a team like Vandy, who actually cleans up the glass on both ends.

Vanderbilt has the clear advantage in offensive efficiency (126.8 vs. Nebraska’s 118.5), and they’re far more balanced across the board. The Commodores are far better at getting to the line (79.3% FT) and getting easy points in transition (2nd best in assist-to-turnover ratio). Nebraska’s defense is solid, but it’s about to face a more efficient offense with better shooters. Bottom line: Metis sees what Vegas misses — Vandy has the edge, and it’s more than just a 2.5-point margin.