Arkansas (4) vs High Point (12)

Vegas has Arkansas favored by 11.5, but Metis has them at 12.5 — not much daylight, but enough to make the case that Arkansas should cover here. High Point’s defensive stats are rough, sitting at 161st in defensive efficiency with a bottom-tier 256th in defensive rebounding. Arkansas is a fast-paced team (20th in tempo) that can exploit these gaps, especially with their top-10 shooting efficiency. High Point might hit some threes, but Arkansas’ elite defense (48th in defensive efficiency) will stifle the Panthers' offensive flow, and High Point’s 21.4% turnover rate against Arkansas’ pressure defense will likely lead to extra possessions.

This isn't a blowout, but there's a clear talent gap. High Point’s offensive rating of 117th on KenPom is paltry compared to Arkansas' 6th-ranked offense. Even if Metis' line is a bit higher than Vegas’, the underlying numbers — particularly Arkansas’ efficiency and depth — suggest they'll cover.