Iowa St (2) vs Kentucky (7)

Vegas might have Iowa State -4.5, but Metis is onto something with -8.5. Kentucky’s numbers are all over the place—good offensive rebounding, but terrible at defending the three and forcing turnovers. Iowa State, on the other hand, isn’t just good; they’re elite. Their defensive efficiency (4th) is suffocating, while Kentucky’s offense (39th in adjusted efficiency) is far from intimidating. Iowa State also has the edge in nearly every stat that matters—shooting percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio, and their defense is ready to crush a Wildcat offense that can’t even guard the arc effectively.

Kentucky may have a solid seed, but that’s more about their conference play than actual dominance. This game won’t be close—the Cyclones will win by at least 8.5.