Arizona (1) vs Utah St (9)

Not much daylight between Metis and Vegas here, but that doesn't mean it's a cop-out. Arizona's a clear favorite, but let's not get too carried away with their 11.5-point cushion. Utah State's solid at both ends (top-30 in offense and defense), and their ball control (25th in assist-to-turnover ratio) makes them tough to blow out. Arizona has a lot of star power, but Utah State isn’t some chump team — they’ll keep it competitive with their efficiency.

Arizona’s juggernaut offense (ranked 5th in KenPom offensive efficiency) should wear on Utah State, but their perimeter defense (33.9% opponent 3PT) and overall defensive rebounding could be problems. Utah State isn't elite, but they’re tough enough to keep it within 10.5, even against the No. 1 seed. The Vegas line is right where it should be, but if anything, the Metis prediction seems just a touch more cautious than the public is willing to admit.