Alabama (4) vs Texas Tech (5)

Not much daylight here — this is essentially a pass for me. Both teams are top-20 in T-rank, and the numbers suggest a tight matchup. Texas Tech has a slight edge in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage, while Alabama’s offensive firepower, with the top 3-point rate in the nation, gives them the upper hand. Metis is right to edge Alabama by 2.5, factoring in their more potent offense and superior free-throw shooting, but the line is close enough that the game’s tempo and the teams’ overall balance make Vegas’ -1.5 a reasonable bet, too. Ultimately, this one’s too tight to call with confidence.