Virginia (3) vs Tennessee (6)

Vegas hanging Tennessee -1.5 here feels like they’re overrating rebounding volume and ignoring shot quality. Virginia’s rocking a 54.6% eFG (54th) against a Tennessee defense allowing 47.7% (36th), while the Vols themselves shoot a shaky 51.6% (173rd) against a Virginia defense that clamps down to 45.3% (5th). Both teams crawl (tempo ranks 271 and 307), which means fewer possessions and more weight on efficiency — and Virginia is just cleaner on that front.

Metis at Virginia -3.5 lines up with the sims (-3.8, -2.9) and reflects the reality that Tennessee’s offense is basically vibes plus offensive rebounding. If you’re relying on a 33.4% three-point team (202nd) that barely takes threes (331st) against a defense that runs shooters off the line (30.9% allowed), good luck scoring 65. Tennessee’s path requires domination on the glass, but Virginia is top-10 in offensive rebounding themselves and won’t get bullied enough to flip this.