Kansas (4) vs St. John's (5)

Vegas is giving St. John's a little too much credit here. Sure, they have solid numbers, but let's not ignore the fact that Kansas ranks 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency—no easy buckets for the Johnnies. St. John's offense has been shaky, ranking 44th in offensive efficiency while Kansas is 57th defensively but still a force on that end. The real kicker is Kansas’ defense forcing turnovers (337th in turnover rate for St. John's), and St. John's struggles to capitalize on clean looks, ranking 215th in 3-point shooting.

Kansas is built to win tight games, and they’ve got the talent to neutralize St. John's hustle, especially in the second half. Metis is right to favor the Jayhawks—this is a mismatch in key areas, and Kansas’ defensive prowess will overwhelm the Johnnies’ somewhat lackluster offense.