Arkansas (4) vs Hawaii (13)

Vegas is hanging a -15.5 like Arkansas is about to run Hawaii out of the gym, but the profile doesn’t scream blowout. Hawaii’s defense is legit — 43rd in KenPom efficiency, 16th in opponent eFG%, and 11th in defensive rebounding — which travels a lot better than their ugly 211th-ranked offense. Arkansas is elite offensively (127.7 efficiency, 6th nationally), but they don’t force turnovers (238th) and their own defense is basically Hawaii-lite (48th), not some shutdown unit that buries inferior teams.

Metis sitting at -11.5 lines up with the sims (11.6 and 12.3), and that feels right given Hawaii’s ability to slow things just enough and avoid getting blitzed. Arkansas will score, sure, but Hawaii’s 30.7% opponent 3PT defense and physicality on the glass make it hard to create real separation. This isn’t a good Hawaii team, but it’s a stubborn one, and laying 15.5 requires a level of dominance Arkansas hasn’t consistently shown against competent defenses.