Florida (1) vs Iowa (9)

Vegas is giving Florida an extra point here, but the numbers say that’s generous. Iowa’s defense is elite on paper—top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency and forcing turnovers at an 11th percentile rate—so they’re not going to roll over the way Vegas assumes. Meanwhile, Florida’s edge comes more from offensive rebounding and paint dominance, which inflates their efficiency, but Iowa’s size and defensive discipline mitigate that a lot. Metis’ 9.5-point line respects Florida’s talent without overcompensating for stats that Iowa neutralizes.

Also, look at the pace: Iowa is dead last in tempo (63rd percentile? More like glacial), which slows Florida’s transition game and caps scoring. Vegas is overvaluing Florida’s seed and rebounding; Metis accounts for Iowa’s ability to frustrate elite teams on defense and control the clock. Not much daylight here, but if you’re betting the number, 9.5 is sharper than 10.5.