Purdue (2) vs Miami (7)

Vegas has Purdue -8.5, and Metis says -9. Not much daylight here, but let’s dig in: these two lines are essentially aligned, but Metis edges it out by a point because the data points toward a Purdue team that’s just too strong, especially on offense. Purdue’s efficiency numbers (131.6 O-efficiency, #1 in the country) scream dominance, while Miami’s defensive stats (100.7 D-efficiency, 38th) don’t inspire much confidence against an offense that shoots 57.7% eFG.

Miami’s offensive rebounding (34.2%) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.435) won’t cut it against a Purdue squad that grabs boards at a higher rate (35%) and commits fewer turnovers (assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.248). The spread is close, but Purdue’s elite offense and strong defense should just wear down Miami over 40 minutes.