Purdue (2) vs Texas (11)

Vegas is hanging a 7.5 like Texas can hang offensively for 40 minutes, but that 1.125 assist-to-turnover ratio (219th) against Purdue’s absurd 2.248 (1st) is a possession gap waiting to happen. Purdue’s offense is literally No. 1 in KenPom (131.6) with a top-20 eFG% (57.7%), and Texas’ defense is a soft 105.9 (112th) that doesn’t force turnovers (346th) or defend the three (299th). That’s not a matchup problem, that’s a slow bleed.

Metis at -9.5 isn’t asking for a miracle, it’s just pricing in competence versus chaos. Even the sims lean that way (8.7 and 11.0), and Purdue’s efficiency edge plus ball security should quietly stretch this past two possessions. Texas can get to the line (4th in FT rate), but you can’t free throw your way out of getting diced up every halfcourt set.