Nebraska (4) vs Iowa (9)

Vegas hanging Nebraska -1.5 feels like they’re grading Iowa on vibes and offensive aesthetics. Yes, Iowa’s 121.7 KenPom offensive efficiency (31st) and 56.6% eFG (16th) pop, but Nebraska is 7th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (92.4) and holds teams to 47.8% eFG and 29.9% from three — that’s not a soft landing for a Hawkeye team that already crawls at a 63-possession tempo. When your opponent is top-10 at running shooters off the line and you’re 199th in free throw rate, the math gets tight fast.

On the other end, Iowa’s 52.7% opponent eFG (252nd) is a flashing red light against a Nebraska team with the 6th-best assist-to-turnover ratio (1.843) and a top-15 3-point rate (50.7). The Cornhuskers are more balanced, more physical defensively, and better across every predictive metric that actually travels — NET (14 vs 27), T-rank (20 vs 26), BPI (18 vs 31). Metis laying -6.5 isn’t aggressive, it’s just pricing in that one team defends like a contender and the other defends like a suggestion.