Arizona (1) vs Arkansas (4)

Vegas hanging Arizona -7.5 feels like they’re pricing Arkansas’ shiny offensive résumé without noticing who’s actually winning possessions. Arizona is top-3 nationally in both adjD (90.0) and opponent eFG% (45%), while Arkansas’ biggest defensive flaws — 241st in defensive rebounding and 182nd in opponent eFG% — line up perfectly with an Arizona team that grabs 38.1% of its misses (4th nationally). That’s not a stylistic debate, that’s a math problem Arkansas probably fails twice a possession.

Metis at -8.5 simply respects that Arizona’s offense (127.7 adjO, same as Arkansas) gets extra shots while its defense is an entirely different tax bracket. Arkansas shoots 38.9% from three but barely takes them (311th 3PT rate), meaning Arizona’s elite interior defense forces them into exactly the half-court grind they hate. The sims averaging 7.1 and 9.9 basically split the difference, and when both models lean Arizona comfortably, laying the extra point isn’t bold, it’s just acknowledging the better team.