Duke (1) vs St. John's (5)

Vegas hanging -6.5 feels like they’re giving St. John’s full credit for that shiny top-15 defense, but Duke is basically better at everything that matters. The Blue Devils are 4th in offensive efficiency (128) against a St. John’s offense that’s stuck in the mud—51% eFG (194th) and 33.2% from three (215th) is not how you keep pace with a top-2 defense. Add in Duke’s edge on the glass (36.5% ORB vs 73.2% DRB allowed) and this starts looking like extra possessions plus better shots.

Metis at -10.5 isn’t aggressive, it’s just honest about the gap between a complete team and one that grinds but can’t score. Both sims land north of nine, and nothing in St. John’s profile suggests they can exploit Duke’s only mild weaknesses. If you’re waiting for the Johnnies to suddenly shoot like a top-50 offense, that’s a lifestyle choice, not a model.