Michigan (1) vs Alabama (4)

Not much daylight here, and that’s the point — Metis at Michigan -8.5 is basically calling Vegas a touch greedy. Alabama’s offense is elite (129 adj efficiency, 3rd) but it’s heavily dependent on bombing threes (53.7% rate, 1st) against a Michigan defense that’s literally No. 1 in both adj efficiency (89) and opponent eFG% (44.7) while also holding teams to 30.2% from deep. That’s a bad stylistic marriage for Bama’s shot diet.

Vegas is leaning into Michigan’s overall dominance, but ignoring that Alabama’s pace (73.1, 4th) and shot volume can keep this inside the number even if they’re inefficient. The Tide are flawed defensively (103.3, 67th) and on the glass (275th DR%), but Michigan’s offense (126.6, 8th) isn’t quite nuclear enough to consistently stretch this to double digits unless Alabama completely no-shows from three.