Iowa St (2) vs Tennessee (6)

Vegas hanging -3.5 feels like they’re still romanticizing Tennessee’s defense and ignoring the math problem on the other end. Tennessee’s 51.6% eFG (173rd) paired with 33.4% from three (202nd) is a rough recipe against an Iowa State defense ranked 4th in efficiency that also forces turnovers on 21.9% of possessions. Meanwhile, Iowa State’s offense is just flat-out better — 56.5% eFG (19th) and 38.7% from deep (12th) against a Tennessee team that doesn’t generate takeaways (208th in TO rate).

The gap isn’t subtle either; both simulations land north of -4.5, with Gemini basically sitting on the Metis number at 6.4. Tennessee can crash the glass all they want (1st in ORB%), but when you can’t shoot and you’re coughing it up, that just means more empty trips with extra steps. Metis at -6.5 is calling out the real mismatch here: Iowa State’s offense will actually convert, and Tennessee’s won’t.