Arizona (1) vs Purdue (2)

Alright, let’s not get cute here: Arizona -6.5 is just too much. Sure, the Wildcats are good, but Purdue is a powerhouse in its own right, with elite offensive efficiency (1st in KenPom) and the best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country. Purdue’s defense is solid enough (36th in KenPom) to keep Arizona’s offense, which has its own issues (3pt shooting is mid-tier at best), in check. Vegas is overrating Arizona's defensive efficiency and rebounding a little too much — Purdue’s offensive game plan will slow things down and force a grind, making a 6.5-point spread too generous.

Metis' -5.5 is right on the money. Arizona’s pace isn’t going to blow Purdue out of the water, and the Boilermakers’ ability to control tempo will keep this closer than Vegas expects. With the shooting and turnover advantages Purdue holds, they're going to be a tough out, and the line feels off.