Michigan (1) vs Tennessee (6)

Vegas is underestimating Michigan’s sheer offensive firepower and Tennessee’s glaring inefficiencies. The Wolverines shoot 58.2% eFG and are top-10 in adjO, while Vols struggle from deep (33.4% 3P) and rank 173rd in eFG. Tennessee’s elite offensive rebounding won’t matter if they can’t get quality shots, and Michigan’s defense is first in efficiency — they’ll turn those second chances into transition buckets against a Vols team that ranks 307th in tempo.

Not much daylight in simulation variance — OpenAI’s 8.5 and Gemini’s 10.2 both smack right around Metis’ 9.5. Vegas seems hung up on the Vols’ defensive numbers, but Michigan doesn’t need the extra possessions; they’ll methodically pick Tennessee apart. Trust the Metis line here; the data is screaming double digits.