Duke (1) vs Uconn (2)

Vegas hanging -5.5 here feels like they’re pricing UConn’s brand, not the matchup. Duke is basically better everywhere that matters: #1 in T-rank, #1 in NET, and a +6 point edge in KenPom efficiency (128 offense, 89.1 defense vs UConn’s 122/94.1). The rebounding gap jumps too — Duke’s 36.5% offensive rebounding (10th) against a UConn team that’s just 77th on the defensive glass is second-chance points waiting to happen.

Metis at -7.5 isn’t aggressive, it’s just acknowledging Duke’s higher ceiling and fewer holes. UConn’s free throw rate (311th) and mediocre shooting profile (35th eFG, 105th from three) don’t travel well against a top-2 defense that doesn’t give up easy looks. Sim averages at 6.1 and 8.7 aren’t subtle hints — they’re flashing neon that this number should be closer to two possessions.