Arizona (1) vs Michigan (1)

Vegas is giving Michigan the slight edge, but I think Metis is more in line with reality, favoring Michigan by a full point more. Arizona has been solid, no doubt — ranked top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — but they’re also 362nd in 3pt rate. Against a Michigan team that locks down the perimeter (11th in 3pt defense), that’s a major issue. Arizona’s offensive rebounding is elite, but Michigan isn’t exactly a slouch in that department (39th), and their defense is just smothering.

Michigan has the superior offense, and let’s not forget the defensive edge they hold — their 1st-ranked defensive efficiency dwarfs Arizona’s 3rd. The Wildcats may have been dominant all year, but when they run into a team this capable at limiting their strengths, the metrics favor Michigan. This isn’t a fluke, Metis sees what Vegas misses: Michigan’s ability to control both ends of the floor outweighs Arizona’s flashy stats.